Albaggio’s Week 7 NFL Picks Against The Spread

The casual reader was probably under the impression that I should quit my job and move to Las Vegas after the Sunday morning games in which I went 6-1-1 ATS (including Thursday night’s win). One buddy texted me, “I checked your morning scores and I was like man, this guy is a football psychic. Lol.” I chuckled internally realizing I’ve been in this game way too long to start pre-maturely celebrating what others saw as this mystic gambling prowess.

What I didn’t realize was that three hours later the NFL would serve me a nice big slice of humble pie. I somehow managed to lose EVERY single game on the afternoon slate! That’s almost downright impressive how bad I was. The Giants decided to send out Keanu Reeves, John Favreau, and Orlando Jones and cast to play Philly on Sunday night in an NFC East showdown where…wait a minute. You mean they WEREN’T filming “The Replacements: Part 2”? That’s a damn shame. Gene Hackman definitely could have coached a better game than Tom Coughlin last Sunday night.

The Rams continue to set records that never cease to amaze. Janoris Jenkins’ brain fart led to an 80 yard TD by Brandon Lloyd with less than 30 seconds left until halftime in which the 49ers seemed content with letting the clock run out. According to the Elias Sports Bureau no other NFL team has scored a TD on a run or pass of 80 or more yards in the final half-minute of the second period since the 1970 merger. Congratulations St. Louis, you made history and put me two games over .500 for the week giving me a final tally of 8-6-1 ATS.

As always, home team is in CAPS.

PATS (-9.5) over Jets

Here’s the injury report for Thursday night’s game.

Jerod Mayo: right knee; “out”.

Stevan Ridley: torn ACL and MCL; “out”.

You, the reader: “out” of your mind if you think I’m taking Geno Smith on the road even if the Jets are getting 9.5 points.

RAVENS (-7) over Falcons

If you refer back to my column last week I compared the Falcons to an “insanely hot girl who none of your buddies could figure out how you pulled but everybody agrees, including yourself, it’s just a matter of time before she screws you over in an epic manner.” Well, in record fashion the insanely hot girl (Falcons) screwed me over in less than a week!

Now I’m going to do what no man in the history of the earth has been able to accomplish successfully. I’m learning my lesson after the first debacle and walking away (side note: watching the Falcons win this game outright as an underdog would be the equivalent of your best friend dating the same hot girl the week after she dump trucked fickle matter all over you and thinking the same thing wouldn’t happen to him. Okay, I’m officially done giving life advice after that statement. On to my next pick).

REDSKINS (-5) over Titans

Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in their last five games. Washington has been outscored 102-51 in their last three losses. Picking games like this is the hardest part of writing my column. It’s comparable to a night out with the guys in which your buddy is ecstatic about a girl he has been talking to all evening but what he doesn’t know is that you saw her earlier making out with some random dude in the bathroom who later tells you, “it’s getting late, I have to take SOMEBODY home.” Now, is there really a favorable outcome in this situation? Absolutely not, but the show must go on…

Seahawks (-6.5) over RAMS

Seattle isn’t losing two games in a row but this isn’t a Survivor Pool and I don’t have the luxury of picking straight winners. I’m taking the Seahawks laying the 6.5 only because I can’t, in good faith, take the Rams after Monday night’s meltdown on a short week. I’m staying away from this game and so should you.

Browns (-5.5) over JAGUARS

Let’s not start trading in our Bernie Kosar jerseys for Brian Hoyer jerseys, but at least let’s give that cat some credit. When is the last time anybody was afraid to play Cleveland? The short answer is now. Switching professional sports for a minute but staying with the city of Cleveland, I’m really hoping Kyrie Irving makes it through the upcoming season injury free. I’d be delighted with a Cavalier v. Bulls Eastern Conference Finals. That is if Derrick Rose erratic knees hold up as well.

COLTS (-3) over Bengals

Indy has been pretty consistent in their last four wins and have a sneaky good defense that may be a little underrated. I like Gio Bernard but with A.J. Green out I don’t feel comfortable with betting on Andy Dalton on the road without his #1 playmaker.

Vikings (+6) over BILLS

Imagine my excitement a few weeks ago when the possibility of a Christian Ponder v. E.J. Manuel QB matchup still existed. Talk about endless material. To my dismay I lost about 42.6 jokes when they were swiftly replaced. I think Buffalo gets the victory but I expect Teddy Ballgame to have a breakout game and keep it close.

BEARS (-3) over Dolphins

On paper this looks like a lock but for whatever reason Miami plays better on the road then they do at home. I’ll roll the dice with the Bears laying the 3 points but just remember the Bears are the Falcons “evil twin sister” so when they put up a goose egg and Ryan Tannenhill sets personal records for passing yards and TD’s in a single game don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Saints (+3) over LIONS

I received the following three texts after last week’s game from a buddy of mine who, besides Jalen Rose, may be the most die-hard D-town boogie fan alongside his father who is from Michigan.

Text #1: Never doubt the Lions

Text #2: Wait a minute…always doubt the Lions. We won but ugly and we suck

Text# 3: There has never been a worse 4-2 team. We’ll end up 8-8 at best.

Back in the day I spent some time in the gambling trenches with this guy. Those three texts are good enough for me.

PACKERS (-7) over Panthers

In all honesty I was fixing to take the Panthers because Green Bay’s defense is suspect and Greg Olsen is playing like Gronkowski circa 2011 but then something happened that I couldn’t make up. My boy “Smashey” who resides in Dublin and is a Cheese Head at heart even though he was born and raised a rugby player sent me a WhatsApp message asking when my Week 7 picks were being posted because he wanted to lose some money.

Now I don’t know about you but when a 6 foot 2 inch 270 lb Irishman who plays Prop in one of the toughest sports in the world asks who you like in a game in which his favorite team is partaking in, that’s got to be considered some type of omen right? Right. Well that and I’m 2-0-1 ATS taking the Packers since I started making my picks. I’m taking Green Bay laying the 7 points because Rodgers to Nelson is single-handedly saving my Fantasy team and because we have the luck of the Irish on our side this week.

Chiefs (+4) over CHARGERS

This game could be tricky for a variety of reasons.

• I’m making the 1 hour 45 minute trip to San Diego and will be in attendance for this game.
• My girlfriend is a die-hard Charger fan (forgive her, she doesn’t know any better) so cheering for Jamaal Charles every time he breaks a run into the open field isn’t exactly an option unless I want to get elbowed in the ribs all game.
• Explaining to her I don’t mind if San Diego wins but just not by more than a field goal.

Let’s root for Reason #3 to pan out otherwise it’s going to be a long ride home especially when I check my wallet and realize that those $12 beers really add up.

Cards (-4) over RAIDERS

My buddy Brad texts me every week to stop betting against his Cardinals. The problem is they screw me either way. I took them +7 against the Broncos two weeks ago and they got housed and then last week I took the Redskins to cover and they back door me with a Pick 6 to end the game when the guy clearly should have just fallen down because the game would have been over.

This pick is for you “BK” and if it fails you have to wear your Neil Rackers jersey for a WEEK to your classroom. Good luck explaining to your students why you have a kicker’s jersey who used to bleach his tips blonde.

COWBOYS (-6.5) over Giants

Do you know what happens when you pick your divisional rival over your favorite team in a Survivor Pool? It was a rhetorical question……but just you wait and $%&*ing see.

49ers (+7) over BRONCOS

This pick is for you Montee Ball. Remember when I mentioned that Rodgers and Nelson were carrying my Fantasy team? Well this clown should get 8-10 years for murdering me in my big time keeper league. Sorry for the hostility but Justin Forsett and Jerick McKinnon can only “band-aid” my RB status for so long thanks to Mr. Ball’s ineptitude.

STEELERS (-3) over Texans

Do you remember when Monday Night Football used to be relevant? Neither does anybody under the age of 25. It’s nothing against Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden because I think they do a decent job. Ever since NBC paid the big bucks for the Sunday night flex game is has totally made MNF an afterthought. This brings us to present day and I don’t think Mike Tomlin can afford to lose at home in a prime time game so I’m taking the Terrible Towels and laying the 3 points.

Muchas gracias everybody and thanks again for reading. Enjoy your weekend.

Last week: 8-6-1 ATS

Overall: 21-20-2 ATS