Week 5 NFL Picks Against The Spread

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    Updated: October 5, 2014
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    Last week I was 5-4 ATS (against the spread) going into the home stretch when suddenly the NFL showed that it truly is a league of parity when three of four underdogs scored outright victories against the favorites. The following is what I took from Week 4.

    What I got right: I absolutely nailed the Packers game predicting Aaron Rodgers would go off (302 yards and 4 TD’s) as well as Cutler having a “Fitzpatrick” day (he did throwing two big INT’s as well as getting sacked four times). The Bills didn’t cover like I predicted but EJ Manuel threw a Pick 6 to JJ Watt that lost them the game. He was so horrendous that head coach Doug Marrone declared earlier in the week that back up journeyman Kyle Orton would be starting Week 5.

    On a side note, Sammy Watkins and Robert Wood’s insurance premium just went down due to the decreased chances that they get decapitated going across the middle. The Ravens blew out the Panthers in the “Steve Smith Sr. over/under game.” Smith Sr. didn’t disappoint racking up 7 catches for 139 yards and 2 TD’s. The Lions, Chargers, and Dolphins all covered in rather uneventful games.

    What I got wrong: The resurrected Eli Manning and his new sidekick Larry Donnell made me put my foot in my mouth as a beloved Giants fan. I received several texts berating my Kirk Cousins statement which were all well deserved. The Giants are an enigma right now and you just never which team is going to show up. I re-read my commentary in both the Titans and the Pats game and realized I just should have listened to myself. The Titans have zero redeeming qualities and the Pats would be better off with Terrell Owens and Chad Ocho Cinco rather than the putrid personnel they are putting on the field.

    The Terrible Towels must have been soaked in chloroform at halftime because the Steelers took the field in the second half looking like a cast of extras from “The Walking Dead.” That was a bad loss to a terrible Bucs team. Teddy Bridgewater outplayed Matt Ryan and the Falcons continue to be abysmal on the road. I saved my biggest blunder for last. Predicting that Saint would be victorious by double digits then getting pummeled by DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys was probably the biggest hit to my ego. I wasn’t expecting the “Aints” defense to stop anybody but to not put up points against that Dallas team? Sean Payton and Drew Brees have some serious issues they need to attend to if they expect to make the playoffs.

    Week 5 NFL Picks

    PACKERS (-8) over Vikings

    The Packers have to win two games in a row eventually right? Great home field advantage and Eddie Lacy getting back on track should be the remedy. I love the Packers at -7 but Vegas is too smart for that. Let’s all cheer for a Cheese Head blowout rather than a Viking backdoor cover.

    Bears (+3) over PANTHERS

    There is a classic scene in the movie “Two for the Money” (very underrated flick by the way) where Matthew McConaughey is a sports betting handicapper who is down and out on his luck and needs to pick one final winner to salvage any dignity (and his neck). He leaves his fate up to a flip of a coin. Why is this information pertinent you ask? Bears=Tails and Carolina=Heads. I’ll give you one guess which side my coin landed on.

    Browns (+1) over TITANS

    Any chance I could use that coin again? I’m taking the Browns because I don’t think their record is indicative of their play. They haven’t been blow out in either of their losses (30-27 against Pitt and 23-21 against Baltimore) and Tennessee hasn’t exactly been lighting up the wins column. Confidence points on this game ranging from 1-10 is about a 2.8.

    EAGLES (-7) over Rams

    Is it me or is the Rams new QB Austin Davis not terrible? He actually looked competent throwing the ball and leading his team down the field a few separate times. This game looks eerily like the Titans v. Colts last week (spread was also 7 for the visiting underdog) and I got burned on that game so this week I am switching to the home favorite and laying the points. Oh, and expect Shady McCoy to have a breakout game. He looked a little disturbed this week with all the questions about his recent low production performances at the press conferences.

    GIANTS (-4) over Falcons

    The outcome of this game will lie on Eli “Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde” Manning’s shoulders. Eli had a QBR of 27.8 with a stat line of only 163 yards passing with 2 INT’s against Detroit. He then goes for 300 yards and 5 TD’s (one rushing) with a QBR of 97.5 while making a fool of me and Redskins’ pick in the process. Do you now see my dilemma? I’m banking on Eli playing somewhat in the middle of those two contrasting performances as well as the G-MEN defense putting up back to back quality efforts. Hey fellow Giants’ fans, isn’t a joy to watch 1st round pick (2011, pick #19) Prince Amukamara finally playing like one? As our lovely neighboring countrymen (Canada) would say, “No doubt about it!!!”

    Bucs (+10) over SAINTS

    Tell me again why the Bucs can’t do to the Saints what they did to the Steelers at home exactly one week ago or at least not get blown out by 10 points? No really, I’m waiting…

    COWBOYS (-6) over Texans

    RYAN FITZPATRICK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Come on, you knew that was coming).

    Bills (+7) over Lions

    I’m taking Kyle Orton and the 7 points. I’m also headed to the bar to forget I ever said, “I’m taking Kyle Orton”, in any way, shape, or form in the gambling realm.

    Ravens (+3.5) over COLTS

    This could easily be the Game of the Week in the NFL. My prediction is this game comes down to a late drive in the fourth quarter with a field goal deciding the outcome. If I’m right, that .5 leeway is the difference maker if the Ravens fall short.

    Steelers (-6) over JAGUARS

    Sorry Blake Bortles but the Jaguars should NEVER be less than a 7 point underdog. Plain and simple.

    Cardinals (+7) over BRONCOS

    I wonder if Bruce Arians is channeling his inner Rodney Dangerfield with the immortal catchphrase, “I get no respect I tell ya.” I heard a lot of rumors that Arizona’s defense wasn’t going to be as strong as last year but so far they’ve given up only 17 points to the Chargers, 14 to the Giants, and 14 to the 49ers. If anybody can expose a defense it is Peyton Manning but I’m taking the Cardinals getting the 7 points.

    49ERS (-5) over Chiefs

    Courtesy of businessinsider.com

    Courtesy of businessinsider.com

    After a four game sample could there be any other two teams more confusing than the 49ers and the Chiefs? The 49ers blew a 17 point lead to Chicago in a big Sunday night game then responded with a victory at home against an undefeated Philly team. The Chiefs got housed by a terrible Titans team in Week 1 only to annihilate a Brady led Pats team last Monday night. When in doubt take the head coach who has a mandible comparable to THIS guy. (Frantz, insert Tango & Cash big jaw guy side by side with a pic of Jim Harbaugh)

    CHARGERS (-6.5) over Jets

    Bet against me on this one. Somehow the Jets are going to cover the 6.5 but I just couldn’t respect myself in the morning if I took Geno Smith on the road.

    Bengals (-1) over PATS

    Since 2003, the Pats have lost back-to-back games only four times with the most recent coming in Weeks 2-3 of the 2012 season. This weekend becomes the fifth time.

    Seahawks (-7) over REDSKINS

    Courtesy of sport.yahoo.com

    Courtesy of sport.yahoo.com

    My best friend “Dizzle” bet me I couldn’t sneak a Beverly Hills 90210 reference into my column.

    Betting against Russell Wilson is like betting against an 18 year old Dylan McKay in a game of billiards after he’s just crushed 13 Coronas because he found out Brenda was leaving him to go back to Minnesota State University and that Jim Walsh was blocking his inheritance afraid he would go totally rogue. It’s just not something I feel comfortable doing.

    BOOM, now I’m done!

    Enjoy your weekend everybody.

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    2 Comments

    1. [email protected]

      October 7, 2014 at 9:43 PM

      Good stuff again James I havnt checked but looks like you killed it! Im no McConaghey fan but I’ll check out the Twofer flick!

      • James Alba

        October 7, 2014 at 10:18 PM

        No worries if you’re not a McConaghey Big Mike, Al Pacino delivers a hell of a performance as well ; )

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